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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.

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Match Analysis

Rapid Vienna host TSV Hartberg at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Allianz Stadion, Rapid Vienna have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

TSV Hartberg — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's away record: 2W 7D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

On current form, Rapid Vienna have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Rapid Vienna trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

TSV Hartberg trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 58% versus TSV Hartberg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 48% | TSV Hartberg 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.15 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.985 / defence 0.885 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.971 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Rapid Vienna games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 30%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | TSV Hartberg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rapid Vienna 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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