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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK finished level at 1-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.80 xG and Grazer AK 1.19 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Grazer AK attack 0.93 / defence 1.32, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 49% | Draw 28% | Grazer AK 23%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 52%, Grazer AK 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Grazer AK's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Grazer AK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights