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Poisson model favours TSV Hartberg (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as TSV Hartberg face Grazer AK.

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Pre-Match Analysis

TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK meet at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 April 2025 at 18:30 UTC.

Current Form

TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Grazer AK have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Grazer AK's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward TSV Hartberg. A 0.60 PPG lead over Grazer AK (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Grazer AK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — TSV Hartberg lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2025, ended 3–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 59% versus Grazer AK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 52% | Grazer AK 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.80 xG and Grazer AK 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.854 / defence 1.067 | Grazer AK attack 0.928 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Grazer AK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 22 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 49% | Draw 28% | Grazer AK 23%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Grazer AK 4.35. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Grazer AK 60% BTTS from recent games.

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