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Bundesliga · Relegation Round - 6

Kick-off

Fri 25 Apr 2025

18:30

Venue

PROfertil ARENA

Competition

Bundesliga

Austria

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

TSV Hartberg Win

49%

TSV Hartberg

2.04

28%

Draw

3.53

23%

Grazer AK

4.42

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.8%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

1 – 0

9.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.80

TSV Hartberg xG

Total xG

2.99

1.19

Grazer AK xG

49%
28%
23%
TSV HartbergDrawGrazer AK

2.04

49%

Home win

3.53

28%

Draw

4.42

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

57%

Over 2.5

1.75

43%

Under 2.5

2.33

35%

Over 3.5

2.86

65%

Under 3.5

1.54

18%

Over 4.5

5.56

82%

Under 4.5

1.22

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

61%

BTTS Yes

1.65

39%

BTTS No

2.54

Clean Sheet

30%

TSV Hartberg

3.28

17%

Grazer AK

6.04

Win to Nil

15%

TSV Hartberg

6.69

4%

Grazer AK

26.71

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.0 6.0 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1
1 9.1 10.8 6.4 2.5 0.8 0.2
2 8.2 9.7 5.8 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 4.9 5.8 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 2.2 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2
5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.798
λ Away (xG) 1.189
Total xG 2.987
League avg home goals 1.597
League avg away goals 1.200
TSV Hartberg attack strength 0.854
TSV Hartberg defence strength 1.067
Grazer AK attack strength 0.928
Grazer AK defence strength 1.318
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 22