🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 22, as TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.27 xG and FC BW Linz 0.67 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.89 / defence 0.80 against FC BW Linz attack 0.69 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 31% | FC BW Linz 19%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 45%, FC BW Linz 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

FC BW Linz's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights