TSV Hartberg 0-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as TSV Hartberg face Austria Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Austria Vienna at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 24). Kick-off is Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 6D 1L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
TSV Hartberg at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.70 (Austria Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for TSV Hartberg, 4 for Austria Vienna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended TSV Hartberg 2–1 Austria Vienna — a TSV Hartberg win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Austria Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Austria Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG and Austria Vienna 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.867 / defence 0.862 | Austria Vienna attack 1.251 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Austria Vienna have an above-average attack rating of 1.251, which lifts their away xG to 1.24. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Austria Vienna's last 44.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 39%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.19 | Draw 3.36 | Austria Vienna 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 50% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 24 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.08 / Austria Vienna 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.867 / def 0.862 | Austria Vienna attack 1.251 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Austria Vienna xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 24) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 31% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Austria Vienna's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
31%
3.19
30%
3.36
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.32
1.24
Austria Vienna xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.24 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 21D 15L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.75 PPG from 55 outings (29W 9D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.42 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 10W 9D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.77 points per game from their last 26 away games (14W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.51 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 21D 15L in their last 55 games (1.42 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 29W 9D 17L in their last 55 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.50 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.77 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Austria Vienna have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
1
Draws
7
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 62%, Austria Vienna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (TSV Hartberg) and 50% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of TSV Hartberg's games and 58% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 50% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 69% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at Stadion Hartberg, Championship Group - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG and Austria Vienna 1.24 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Austria Vienna attack 1.25 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 39%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Austria Vienna 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.42 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.