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Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at Stadion Hartberg, Championship Group - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG and Austria Vienna 1.24 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Austria Vienna attack 1.25 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 39%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Austria Vienna 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.42 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights