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WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sturm Graz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens beat Sturm Graz 1-3 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.14 xG and WSG Wattens 1.22 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. WSG Wattens outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against WSG Wattens attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 38%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 61%, WSG Wattens 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights