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Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 2.10 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.65 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sturm Graz fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.40 / defence 1.06 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.30 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 56%, Wolfsberger AC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights