🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC meet at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sturm Graz have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sturm Graz at Merkur Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wolfsberger AC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Sturm Graz, 2 for Wolfsberger AC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Wolfsberger AC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 56% | Wolfsberger AC 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.10 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.400 / defence 1.061 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.296 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.201. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 3.45. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | Wolfsberger AC 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights