Sturm Graz 1-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC meet at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sturm Graz at Merkur Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wolfsberger AC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Sturm Graz, 2 for Wolfsberger AC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Wolfsberger AC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 56% | Wolfsberger AC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.10 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.400 / defence 1.061 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.296 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.201. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 3.45. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | Wolfsberger AC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG Sturm Graz 2.10 / Wolfsberger AC 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.400 / def 1.061 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.296 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Wolfsberger AC xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 46% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (7 meetings): Sturm Graz 3W | Draws 2 | Wolfsberger AC 2W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.30x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
46%
2.15
25%
4.03
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.75
1.65
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.69
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
12%
8.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
4%
28.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.65 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz come into this having played 63 games, going 38W 15D 10L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.54 PPG from 63 outings (27W 16D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sturm Graz's home form reads 21W 6D 4L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.65 points per game from 31 outings (14W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.57 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 38W 15D 10L in their last 63 games (2.05 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 27W 16D 20L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.23 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 4-0 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sturm Graz
4
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 42%, Wolfsberger AC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sturm Graz) and 52% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 36%; Wolfsberger AC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 45% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 52% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 2.10 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.65 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sturm Graz fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.40 / defence 1.06 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.30 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 56%, Wolfsberger AC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.