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Shock result as Sturm Graz defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 1-0 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.18 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.54 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.22 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 29% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 46%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 63%, TSV Hartberg 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights