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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur-Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025, 13:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 2D 3L at Merkur-Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Sturm Graz) versus 1.60 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while TSV Hartberg have managed just 0 wins.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Sturm Graz winning.

The historical record gives Sturm Graz a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus TSV Hartberg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 63% | TSV Hartberg 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.18 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.912 / defence 1.057 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.222 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.194. TSV Hartberg have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Sturm Graz games / 29 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 29% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 46%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | TSV Hartberg 2.17. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%.

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