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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sun 28 Sep 2025

13:30

Venue

Merkur-Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Austria

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

TSV Hartberg Win

29%

Sturm Graz

3.43

25%

Draw

3.97

46%

TSV Hartberg

2.19

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.0%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.1%

Away win

1 – 2

9.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.18

Sturm Graz xG

Total xG

2.72

1.54

TSV Hartberg xG

29%
25%
46%
Sturm GrazDrawTSV Hartberg

3.43

29%

Home win

3.97

25%

Draw

2.19

46%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

51%

Over 2.5

1.96

49%

Under 2.5

2.04

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.84

46%

BTTS No

2.20

Clean Sheet

21%

Sturm Graz

4.67

31%

TSV Hartberg

3.26

Win to Nil

6%

Sturm Graz

16.02

14%

TSV Hartberg

7.15

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.6 10.1 7.8 4.0 1.5 0.5
1 7.8 12.0 9.2 4.7 1.8 0.6
2 4.6 7.1 5.4 2.8 1.1 0.3
3 1.8 2.8 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.182
λ Away (xG) 1.542
Total xG 2.724
League avg home goals 1.368
League avg away goals 1.194
Sturm Graz attack strength 0.912
Sturm Graz defence strength 1.057
TSV Hartberg attack strength 1.222
TSV Hartberg defence strength 0.947
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 28 / 29