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Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SCR Altach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat SCR Altach 2-0 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.10 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against SCR Altach attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 60%, SCR Altach 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

SCR Altach's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights