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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg finished level at 1-1 at Merkur-Arena, Championship Group - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.07 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.34 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.96 / defence 0.92 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 29% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 42%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 60%, Red Bull Salzburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.89 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights