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Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Red Bull Salzburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Red Bull Salzburg 4-2 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.87 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.08 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.44 / defence 1.07 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.84 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 53% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 19%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 54%, Red Bull Salzburg 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 2.07 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights