Sturm Graz 4-2 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8. Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 2D 1L at Merkur Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Sturm Graz, 2.00 for Red Bull Salzburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Sturm Graz 2W, Red Bull Salzburg 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Sturm Graz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 54% versus Red Bull Salzburg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 54% | Red Bull Salzburg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.87 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.438 / defence 1.067 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.844 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.438 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 53% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 19%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Red Bull Salzburg 5.26. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 50% | Red Bull Salzburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 53% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Sturm Graz 1.87 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.438 / def 1.067 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.844 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Red Bull Salzburg xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 9 May 2025 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz 4 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 53% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (5 meetings): Sturm Graz 2W | Draws 1 | Red Bull Salzburg 2W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (0.84x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
53%
1.88
28%
3.62
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.95
1.08
Red Bull Salzburg xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
3%
33.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.08 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 37W 15D 9L from 61 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 34W 16D 11L across 61 games — 1.93 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.07 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.93 for Red Bull Salzburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 20W 6D 4L from 30 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 14W 9D 7L across 30 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.95 scored and 0.95 conceded. Sturm Graz's scoring rate against Red Bull Salzburg's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Red Bull Salzburg in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Current Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 37W 15D 9L in their last 61 games (2.07 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 34W 16D 11L in their last 61 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.20 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 5-0 on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
4
Draws
2
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Red Bull Salzburg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 40%, Red Bull Salzburg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sturm Graz) and 43% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 47% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 43% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Red Bull Salzburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Red Bull Salzburg 4-2 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.87 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.08 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.44 / defence 1.07 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.84 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 53% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 19%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 54%, Red Bull Salzburg 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 2.07 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.