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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Championship Round - 8

Kick-off

Fri 9 May 2025

18:30

Venue

Merkur Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Austria

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sturm Graz Win

53%

Sturm Graz

1.88

28%

Draw

3.62

19%

Red Bull Salzburg

5.21

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.6%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

1 – 0

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.87

Sturm Graz xG

Total xG

2.95

1.08

Red Bull Salzburg xG

53%
28%
19%
Sturm GrazDrawRed Bull Salzburg

1.88

53%

Home win

3.62

28%

Draw

5.21

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

18%

Over 4.5

5.56

82%

Under 4.5

1.22

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.71

42%

BTTS No

2.40

Clean Sheet

34%

Sturm Graz

2.95

15%

Red Bull Salzburg

6.46

Win to Nil

18%

Sturm Graz

5.54

3%

Red Bull Salzburg

33.64

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.2 5.7 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
1 9.8 10.6 5.7 2.1 0.6 0.1
2 9.1 9.9 5.3 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 5.7 6.1 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1
4 2.7 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2
5 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.866
λ Away (xG) 1.081
Total xG 2.947
League avg home goals 1.597
League avg away goals 1.200
Sturm Graz attack strength 1.438
Sturm Graz defence strength 1.067
Red Bull Salzburg attack strength 0.844
Red Bull Salzburg defence strength 0.812
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 44