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Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rapid Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 2-0 at Merkur-Arena, Championship Group - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.30 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.98 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rapid Vienna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 43% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 27%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 54%, Rapid Vienna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sturm Graz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights