Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sturm Graz face Lask Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host Lask Linz at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 28). Kick-off is Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lask Linz stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Lask Linz away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sturm Graz at 1.90 PPG versus Lask Linz's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Sturm Graz's games and 70% of Lask Linz's (from Sturm Graz's last 10 home games and Lask Linz's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Sturm Graz, 2 for Lask Linz and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Apr 2026, ended Sturm Graz 1–1 Lask Linz — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lask Linz trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus Lask Linz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 56% | Lask Linz 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sturm Graz surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Lask Linz have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.31 xG and Lask Linz 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.965 / defence 0.929 | Lask Linz attack 1.123 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 44 games and Lask Linz's last 44.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 38% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 33%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.60 | Draw 3.51 | Lask Linz 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 60% (last 10 home games) | Lask Linz 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 28 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 38% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Sturm Graz 1.31 / Lask Linz 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.965 / def 0.929 | Lask Linz attack 1.123 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Lask Linz xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz part of?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 28) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 38% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sturm Graz and Lask Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 44 games and Lask Linz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.51
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.50
1.20
Lask Linz xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
9%
11.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.20 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz come into this having played 59 games, going 33W 11D 15L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 1.73 PPG from 59 outings (30W 12D 17L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sturm Graz on 1.86 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sturm Graz's home form reads 16W 6D 7L across their last 29 home games, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 29 away games (13W 5D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.61 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
Sturm Graz (Home) vs Lask Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 33W 11D 15L in their last 59 games (1.86 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 30W 12D 17L in their last 59 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Lask Linz away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.86 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
2
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 5, Lask Linz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Lask Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Sturm Graz 2-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 55%, Lask Linz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sturm Graz) and 62% (Lask Linz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and Lask Linz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Sturm Graz's games and 62% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Sturm Graz's matches and 62% of Lask Linz's.
Do Sturm Graz and Lask Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 76% of Lask Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur-Arena, Championship Group - 28, as Sturm Graz and Lask Linz drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.31 xG and Lask Linz 1.20 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Lask Linz attack 1.12 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 38% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 33%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 56%, Lask Linz 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Lask Linz's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.86 PPG, Lask Linz 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.