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Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SCR Altach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC beat SCR Altach 1-4 at Cashpoint-Arena, Relegation Group - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.64 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 52% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Wolfsberger AC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 41%, Wolfsberger AC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.05 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights