SCR Altach 1-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 51%, yet in-form Ried provide a compelling counter-argument — this SCR Altach vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ried make the trip to Cashpoint Arena to face SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SCR Altach (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Cashpoint Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint Arena than their overall form suggests.
Ried have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Ried are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ried in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SCR Altach lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 2–0 with SCR Altach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ried goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 45% versus Ried 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 48% | Ried 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.99 xG and Ried 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.025 / defence 0.919 | Ried attack 1.053 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.744 / away 1.397. Data: 32 SCR Altach games / 32 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 51% | Draw 25% | Ried 24%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Ried 4.17. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ried (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Ried 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Cashpoint Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 51% | Draw 25% | Ried 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG SCR Altach 1.99 / Ried 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 1.025 / def 0.919 | Ried attack 1.053 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.744 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Ried xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Ried kick off?
SCR Altach vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Cashpoint Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Ried?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Ried.
Where is SCR Altach vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Ried part of?
SCR Altach vs Ried is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 51% chance of winning, Ried a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SCR Altach and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Ried?
Record (9 meetings): SCR Altach 4W | Draws 2 | Ried 3W.
What form are SCR Altach and Ried in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Ried (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 1.02x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ried's attack (1.05x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
51%
1.98
25%
3.95
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
3.35
1.35
Ried xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
3%
30.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.35 for Ried, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 12D 17L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried's form line: 18W 8D 16L from 42 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.48 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (11W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — SCR Altach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ried have gone 5W 5D 11L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SCR Altach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.36 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Ried in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Ried have gone 18W 8D 16L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Ried away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.86 PPG; Ried away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ried won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SCR Altach
3
Draws
3
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 4, Ried have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when SCR Altach 1-1 Ried.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Ried?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 62%, Ried 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (SCR Altach) and 57% (Ried).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ried in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SCR Altach's games and 67% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of SCR Altach's recent games and 57% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Ried tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ried in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Ried share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cashpoint Arena, Regular Season - 11, as SCR Altach and Ried drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.99 xG and Ried 1.35 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Ried attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 51% | Draw 25% | Ried 24%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 48%, Ried 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.21 PPG, Ried 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.