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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as SCR Altach take on Red Bull Salzburg.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as SCR Altach welcome Red Bull Salzburg to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 4D 5L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Red Bull Salzburg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Red Bull Salzburg's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Red Bull Salzburg have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for SCR Altach.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Red Bull Salzburg in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Red Bull Salzburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.84 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.725 / defence 0.983 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.774 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.205. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 SCR Altach games / 42 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 28% | Draw 40% | Red Bull Salzburg 32%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.57 | Draw 2.50 | Red Bull Salzburg 3.12. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 30% BTTS from recent games.

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