Grazer AK 1-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Sturm Graz travel to Merkur Arena to take on Grazer AK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 March 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Grazer AK have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Merkur Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Grazer AK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Grazer AK, 1 for Sturm Graz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 2–5 with Sturm Graz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Grazer AK trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Sturm Graz trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 75% and Sturm Graz 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Grazer AK 65% | Sturm Graz 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.28 xG and Sturm Graz 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.768 / defence 1.234 | Sturm Graz attack 1.048 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.205. Grazer AK's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Grazer AK games / 42 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 28% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 41%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Sturm Graz 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 70% | Sturm Graz 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 28% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Grazer AK 1.28 / Sturm Graz 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.768 / def 1.234 | Sturm Graz attack 1.048 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Sturm Graz xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?
Grazer AK 1 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz part of?
Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 28% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Grazer AK and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Sturm Graz?
Record (1 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are Grazer AK and Sturm Graz in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Grazer AK's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
28%
3.53
31%
3.23
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.84
1.56
Sturm Graz xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
6%
16.75
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.56 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grazer AK's recent record stands at 3W 7D 10L from 20 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 4L across 20 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Grazer AK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Grazer AK have managed 1W 4D 5L from 10 games — 0.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 5W 2D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Grazer AK are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 3W 7D 10L in their last 20 games (0.80 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 12W 4D 4L in their last 20 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 0.70 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grazer AK and Sturm Graz runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Sturm Graz won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grazer AK's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Grazer AK
0
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Sturm Graz?
From 4 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Sturm Graz 2-1 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Grazer AK at 70%, Sturm Graz at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Grazer AK and 70% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grazer AK have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Grazer AK's games and 60% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Grazer AK's matches and 70% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Grazer AK and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Grazer AK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Grazer AK 1-2 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.28 xG and Sturm Graz 1.56 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.77 / defence 1.23 against Sturm Graz attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 20/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 28% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 41%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 65%, Sturm Graz 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.