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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as TSV Hartberg take on Rapid Vienna.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

TSV Hartberg — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 4D 3L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at PROfertil ARENA than their overall form suggests.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rapid Vienna's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.00 (Rapid Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for TSV Hartberg, 2 for Rapid Vienna and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Rapid Vienna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Rapid Vienna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 58% | Rapid Vienna 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.755 / defence 1.083 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.918 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.205. TSV Hartberg's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 TSV Hartberg games / 42 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 34%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Rapid Vienna 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Rapid Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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