SCR Altach 1-0 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 52%, yet the head-to-head data favours Grazer AK — this SCR Altach vs Grazer AK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cashpoint-Arena plays host to SCR Altach versus Grazer AK in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 26). Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
SCR Altach's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, SCR Altach have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Grazer AK (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Grazer AK away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Grazer AK have the stronger record — 3 wins to SCR Altach's 0, with 3 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended SCR Altach 1–3 Grazer AK — a Grazer AK win.
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 49% versus Grazer AK 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 40% | Grazer AK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.53 xG and Grazer AK 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.009 / defence 0.898 | Grazer AK attack 0.829 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and Grazer AK's last 44.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 20%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.91 | Draw 3.67 | Grazer AK 4.93. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 70% (last 10 home games) | Grazer AK 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 26 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG SCR Altach 1.53 / Grazer AK 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 1.009 / def 0.898 | Grazer AK attack 0.829 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Grazer AK xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SCR Altach vs Grazer AK FAQs
What time does SCR Altach vs Grazer AK kick off?
SCR Altach vs Grazer AK kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Cashpoint-Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Grazer AK?
SCR Altach 1 - 0 Grazer AK.
Where is SCR Altach vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Grazer AK part of?
SCR Altach vs Grazer AK is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 26) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 52% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SCR Altach and Grazer AK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will SCR Altach vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 1.01x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Grazer AK's attack (0.83x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and Grazer AK's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.67
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.38
0.85
Grazer AK xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
4%
22.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SCR Altach vs Grazer AK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.85 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 13W 20D 24L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Grazer AK's form line: 12W 21D 24L from 57 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.00 for Grazer AK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 28 home games (8W 13D 7L).
On the road, Grazer AK have gone 4W 10D 14L from their last 28 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SCR Altach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.14 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK in 63%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
SCR Altach (Home) vs Grazer AK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SCR Altach
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
❓ SCR Altach vs Grazer AK Form FAQs
What form are SCR Altach and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 13W 20D 24L in their last 57 games (1.04 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 12W 21D 24L in their last 57 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Grazer AK away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.32 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
SCR Altach
4
Draws
4
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ SCR Altach vs Grazer AK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Grazer AK?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, SCR Altach have won 1, Grazer AK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Grazer AK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: SCR Altach 1-2 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Grazer AK?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 61%, Grazer AK 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (SCR Altach) and 57% (Grazer AK).
On the defensive side: Grazer AK in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SCR Altach vs Grazer AK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SCR Altach and Grazer AK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SCR Altach's games and 61% of Grazer AK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SCR Altach and Grazer AK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of SCR Altach's recent games and 57% of Grazer AK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Grazer AK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 68% of Grazer AK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SCR Altach edge out Grazer AK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Grazer AK 1-0 at Cashpoint-Arena, Relegation Group - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.53 xG and Grazer AK 0.85 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grazer AK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Grazer AK attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 52% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 20%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 40%, Grazer AK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Grazer AK's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.04 PPG, Grazer AK 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.