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Prediction vindicated as SCR Altach edge out Grazer AK 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach beat Grazer AK 1-0 at Cashpoint-Arena, Relegation Group - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.53 xG and Grazer AK 0.85 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grazer AK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Grazer AK attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 52% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 20%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 40%, Grazer AK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Grazer AK's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.04 PPG, Grazer AK 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights