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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SCR Altach cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC BW Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach beat FC BW Linz 3-1 at Cashpoint-Arena, Relegation Group - 23, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.41 xG and FC BW Linz 0.76 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against FC BW Linz attack 0.75 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 52% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 19%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 39%, FC BW Linz 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

FC BW Linz's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.02 PPG, FC BW Linz 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights