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Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach beat Austria Vienna 2-1 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.22 xG and Austria Vienna 1.27 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against Austria Vienna attack 1.24 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 35% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 37%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 39%, Austria Vienna 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SCR Altach's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with SCR Altach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights