Rapid Vienna 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rapid Vienna (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sturm Graz have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Sturm Graz arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 62% versus Sturm Graz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 56% | Sturm Graz 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.21 xG and Sturm Graz 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.244 / defence 0.956 | Sturm Graz attack 1.066 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.583. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.765 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 Rapid Vienna games / 29 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 27% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 45%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Sturm Graz 2.22. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 70% | Sturm Graz 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 27% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.21 / Sturm Graz 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.244 / def 0.956 | Sturm Graz attack 1.066 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Sturm Graz xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 27% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.24x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.07x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
27%
3.72
28%
3.56
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.82
1.61
Sturm Graz xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
5%
18.69
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.61 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 14W 9D 16L from 39 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 25W 8D 6L across 39 games — 2.13 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 11W 5D 3L across 19 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.82 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 25W 8D 6L in their last 39 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.42 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 68%, Sturm Graz 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Rapid Vienna) and 47% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Rapid Vienna's games and 58% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 47% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.21 xG and Sturm Graz 1.61 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 0.77, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 27% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 45%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 56%, Sturm Graz 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.