Ried 3-2 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ried face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Innviertel Arena plays host to Ried versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 25). Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Current Form
Ried's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Ried have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SCR Altach (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
SCR Altach away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Ried's last 10 home games and SCR Altach's last 10 away games) — Ried have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, SCR Altach in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, SCR Altach edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Ried 3–0 SCR Altach — a Ried win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 54% versus SCR Altach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 50% | SCR Altach 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.07 xG and SCR Altach 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.789 / defence 1.072 | SCR Altach attack 0.787 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Ried's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Ried's last 22 games and SCR Altach's last 44.
Result probabilities: Ried 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.73 | Draw 3.12 | SCR Altach 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ried as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ried's last 10 home games and SCR Altach's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ried 30% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 25 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Ried 1.07 / SCR Altach 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.789 / def 1.072 | SCR Altach attack 0.787 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Ried (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Ried xG
Expected Goals
0.97
SCR Altach xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ried vs SCR Altach FAQs
What time does Ried vs SCR Altach kick off?
Ried vs SCR Altach kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at Innviertel Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Ried 3 - 2 SCR Altach.
Where is Ried vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs SCR Altach part of?
Ried vs SCR Altach is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 25) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 37% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ried and SCR Altach will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Ried vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ried's attack at 0.79x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.79x) against Ried's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Ried's last 22 games and SCR Altach's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.12
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Ried xG
Total xG
2.04
0.97
SCR Altach xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ried vs SCR Altach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ried and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Ried and 0.97 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ried's recent record stands at 9W 4D 11L from 24 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 7L across 24 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Ried against 1.38 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ried have managed 5W 3D 4L from their last 12 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across their last 12 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SCR Altach's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.08 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
Ried (Home) vs SCR Altach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ried
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Ried vs SCR Altach Form FAQs
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 9W 4D 11L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 8W 9D 7L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or SCR Altach away?
Ried's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.50 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ried won Ried 3-0 SCR Altach on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ried
3
Draws
4
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Ried vs SCR Altach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ried have won 3, SCR Altach have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ried and SCR Altach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: SCR Altach 1-1 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 42% (Ried) and 25% (SCR Altach) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ried) and 33% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: Ried keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SCR Altach in 33%; Ried have failed to score in 33% of games; SCR Altach in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ried vs SCR Altach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ried and SCR Altach matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Ried's recent matches and 25% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ried and SCR Altach matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ried's recent games and 33% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and SCR Altach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Ried's recent matches and 58% of SCR Altach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ried edge out SCR Altach 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat SCR Altach 3-2 at Innviertel Arena, Relegation Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.07 xG and SCR Altach 0.97 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against SCR Altach attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, SCR Altach 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.29 PPG, SCR Altach 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.