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Stalemate at Red Bull Salzburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg finished level at 0-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.43 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.13 / defence 1.16 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 39%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 60%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.79 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights