Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Red Bull Salzburg at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours Sturm Graz — this Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Red Bull Arena to face Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sturm Graz's record over their last 10 games: 4W 6D 0L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sturm Graz away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Red Bull Salzburg against 1.80 for Sturm Graz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games) — Red Bull Salzburg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sturm Graz in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Sturm Graz, who have 4 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Mar 2026, ended Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 Sturm Graz — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sturm Graz have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 61% versus Sturm Graz 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 57% | Sturm Graz 54%). Note also that Sturm Graz surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Red Bull Salzburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.36 xG and Sturm Graz 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.998 / defence 1.018 | Sturm Graz attack 1.103 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 44 games and Sturm Graz's last 44.
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 38% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 35%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.64 | Draw 3.64 | Sturm Graz 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Red Bull Salzburg 70% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 30 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 38% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.36 / Sturm Graz 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.998 / def 1.018 | Sturm Graz attack 1.103 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sturm Graz xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz FAQs
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Red Bull Salzburg 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 30) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 38% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.10x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 44 games and Sturm Graz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.64
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.64
1.29
Sturm Graz xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.29 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Red Bull Salzburg's recent record stands at 29W 17D 15L from 61 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 33W 13D 15L across 61 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-D-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Red Bull Salzburg against 1.84 for Sturm Graz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Red Bull Salzburg have managed 16W 7D 7L from their last 30 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 17W 5D 8L across their last 30 away games, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.80 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Current Season
Sturm Graz
Current Season
Red Bull Salzburg (Home) vs Sturm Graz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Red Bull Salzburg
Current Season
Sturm Graz
Current Season
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Form FAQs
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 29W 17D 15L in their last 61 games (1.70 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 33W 13D 15L in their last 61 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 1.83 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Red Bull Salzburg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won Sturm Graz 5-0 Red Bull Salzburg on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Red Bull Salzburg
3
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Red Bull Salzburg have won 3, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Sturm Graz 3-4 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 60%, Sturm Graz 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Red Bull Salzburg and 60% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 60% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 60% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 80% of Sturm Graz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz finished level at 1-1 at Red Bull Arena, Championship Group - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.36 xG and Sturm Graz 1.29 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Sturm Graz attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 38% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 35%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 57%, Sturm Graz 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.70 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.