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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz finished level at 1-1 at Red Bull Arena, Championship Group - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.36 xG and Sturm Graz 1.29 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Sturm Graz attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 38% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 35%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 57%, Sturm Graz 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.70 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights