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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Championship Group - 30

Kick-off

Sun 3 May 2026

16:00

Venue

Red Bull Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Austria

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Red Bull Salzburg Win

38%

Red Bull Salzburg

2.64

27%

Draw

3.64

35%

Sturm Graz

2.88

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.4%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.6%

Home win

0 – 1

9.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.36

Red Bull Salzburg xG

Total xG

2.64

1.29

Sturm Graz xG

38%
27%
35%
Red Bull SalzburgDrawSturm Graz

2.64

38%

Home win

3.64

27%

Draw

2.88

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.84

46%

BTTS No

2.19

Clean Sheet

28%

Red Bull Salzburg

3.63

26%

Sturm Graz

3.88

Win to Nil

10%

Red Bull Salzburg

9.58

9%

Sturm Graz

11.19

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.1 9.2 5.9 2.5 0.8 0.2
1 9.6 12.4 8.0 3.4 1.1 0.3
2 6.5 8.4 5.4 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 3.0 3.8 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.356
λ Away (xG) 1.288
Total xG 2.644
League avg home goals 1.346
League avg away goals 1.147
Red Bull Salzburg attack strength 0.998
Red Bull Salzburg defence strength 1.018
Sturm Graz attack strength 1.103
Sturm Graz defence strength 1.010
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 44