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Stalemate at Grazer AK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK and WSG Wattens finished level at 0-0 at Merkur Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.18 xG and WSG Wattens 1.50 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grazer AK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. WSG Wattens landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.73 / defence 1.26 against WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 27% | Draw 31% | WSG Wattens 42%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 68%, WSG Wattens 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.73 PPG, WSG Wattens 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights