🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

WSG Wattens make the trip to Merkur Arena to face Grazer AK in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Grazer AK have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 1W 4D 5L at Merkur Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

WSG Wattens's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Grazer AK, 0.70 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, WSG Wattens in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Grazer AK winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 73% versus WSG Wattens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 68% | WSG Wattens 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.18 xG and WSG Wattens 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.730 / defence 1.257 | WSG Wattens attack 0.993 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.199. Grazer AK's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Grazer AK games / 44 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 27% | Draw 31% | WSG Wattens 42%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | WSG Wattens 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 70% | WSG Wattens 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights