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Grazer AK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wolfsberger AC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK beat Wolfsberger AC 2-0 at Merkur-Arena, Relegation Group - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.79 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.93 / defence 1.26, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 53% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 23%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 56%, Wolfsberger AC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Grazer AK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights