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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant TSV Hartberg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Grazer AK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat Grazer AK 0-3 at Merkur Arena, Relegation Round - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.23 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.27 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Grazer AK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.74 / defence 1.25 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 33% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 34%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 58%, TSV Hartberg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.81 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights