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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg meet at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Grazer AK's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.00 for TSV Hartberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Grazer AK — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 62% and TSV Hartberg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 58% | TSV Hartberg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.23 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.743 / defence 1.247 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.846 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Grazer AK's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Grazer AK games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 33% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 34%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | TSV Hartberg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Grazer AK 50% | TSV Hartberg 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 1W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Grazer AK 1 – 4 TSV Hartberg • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Grazer AK 0% / Draw 50% / TSV Hartberg 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 33% / draw 33% / away 34% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.50 (46% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 54% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Grazer AK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D • TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D • Grazer AK home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • TSV Hartberg away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (Grazer AK 0.90 PPG vs TSV Hartberg 1.00 PPG) • xG vs form (Grazer AK): Poisson projects 1.23 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.90 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (TSV Hartberg): Poisson projects 1.27 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.50 (46% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 54% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 33% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Grazer AK 1.23 / TSV Hartberg 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.743 / def 1.247 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.846 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.27
TSV Hartberg xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Grazer AK 0 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 33% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
• Record (2 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 1W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Grazer AK 1 – 4 TSV Hartberg • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Grazer AK 0% / Draw 50% / TSV Hartberg 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 33% / draw 33% / away 34% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.50 (46% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 54% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg in?
• Grazer AK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D • TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D • Grazer AK home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • TSV Hartberg away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (Grazer AK 0.90 PPG vs TSV Hartberg 1.00 PPG) • xG vs form (Grazer AK): Poisson projects 1.23 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.90 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (TSV Hartberg): Poisson projects 1.27 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.50 (46% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 54% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture