Grazer AK 0-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg meet at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Grazer AK's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.00 for TSV Hartberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Grazer AK — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 62% and TSV Hartberg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 58% | TSV Hartberg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.23 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.743 / defence 1.247 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.846 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Grazer AK's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Grazer AK games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 33% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 34%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | TSV Hartberg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Grazer AK 50% | TSV Hartberg 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 33% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Grazer AK 1.23 / TSV Hartberg 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.743 / def 1.247 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.846 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.27
TSV Hartberg xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Grazer AK 0 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 33% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
Record (2 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 1W.
What form are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grazer AK's attack at 0.74x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.85x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
33%
3.07
33%
3.01
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.50
1.27
TSV Hartberg xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.27 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 4W 9D 13L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 7W 9D 10L from 26 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.15 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 0.85 PPG from 13 outings (2W 5D 6L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 5D 5L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Grazer AK are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.15 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; TSV Hartberg in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 4W 9D 13L in their last 26 games (0.81 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 0.85 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 0-3 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Grazer AK
3
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 62%, TSV Hartberg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Grazer AK) and 54% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Grazer AK have failed to score in 31% of games; TSV Hartberg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Grazer AK's games and 54% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Grazer AK's recent games and 54% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant TSV Hartberg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Grazer AK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Grazer AK 0-3 at Merkur Arena, Relegation Round - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.23 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.27 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Grazer AK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.74 / defence 1.25 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 33% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 34%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 58%, TSV Hartberg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.81 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.