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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 0W 5D 5L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

TSV Hartberg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to TSV Hartberg, who have claimed 3 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

SCR Altach — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 49% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | TSV Hartberg 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.25 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.754 / defence 0.996 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.843 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 39% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 27%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | TSV Hartberg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 60% | TSV Hartberg 50%.

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