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Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Grazer AK 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Grazer AK 1-2 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.28 xG and Sturm Graz 1.56 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.77 / defence 1.23 against Sturm Graz attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 20/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 28% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 41%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 65%, Sturm Graz 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights