Grazer AK vs SCR Altach – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Grazer AK at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs SCR Altach encounter.

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Full Analysis

Merkur-Arena plays host to Grazer AK versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 27 November 2026 at 18:30 UTC.

Form

Grazer AK (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Merkur-Arena, Grazer AK have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.

SCR Altach have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, SCR Altach have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Grazer AK against 0.80 for SCR Altach. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 3W to 1W over the last 8 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 54% versus SCR Altach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 60% | SCR Altach 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.26 xG and SCR Altach 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.851 / defence 0.870 | SCR Altach attack 0.653 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.177. Data: 27 Grazer AK games / 27 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 48% | Draw 35% | SCR Altach 17%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.08 | Draw 2.86 | SCR Altach 5.88. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Grazer AK 70% | SCR Altach 40%.

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