SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 39%, yet in-form Sturm Graz provide a compelling counter-argument — this SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as SCR Altach welcome Sturm Graz to Cashpoint-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cashpoint-Arena, SCR Altach have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SCR Altach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sturm Graz, who boast 8 victories compared to 0 for SCR Altach.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Sturm Graz winning.
It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 44% versus Sturm Graz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 46% | Sturm Graz 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.49 xG and Sturm Graz 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.985 / defence 0.977 | Sturm Graz attack 0.985 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Data: 31 SCR Altach games / 31 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 39% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 29%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Sturm Graz 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Sturm Graz 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 39% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG SCR Altach 1.49 / Sturm Graz 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.985 / def 0.977 | Sturm Graz attack 0.985 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sturm Graz xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz kick off?
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Cashpoint-Arena.
Where is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz part of?
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 39% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SCR Altach and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
Record (10 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 2 | Sturm Graz 8W.
What form are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.98x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
39%
2.53
32%
3.16
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.74
1.25
Sturm Graz xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.25 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 12D 17L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sturm Graz sit at 1.78 PPG from 41 outings (21W 10D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 10W 6D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — SCR Altach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sturm Graz have taken 1.85 points per game from 20 outings (11W 4D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.63 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 21W 10D 10L in their last 41 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.80 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.85 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Sturm Graz won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
2
Draws
8
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 60%, Sturm Graz 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (SCR Altach) and 50% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SCR Altach's games and 55% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of SCR Altach's recent games and 50% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.