Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 40%, yet in-form Wolfsberger AC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Generali Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Wolfsberger AC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Austria Vienna 5W, Wolfsberger AC 4W, 1D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 0–3 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 56% versus Wolfsberger AC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 58% | Wolfsberger AC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.27 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.859 / defence 1.046 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.803 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.177. Data: 26 Austria Vienna games / 27 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 34% | Wolfsberger AC 26%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Wolfsberger AC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wolfsberger AC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Austria Vienna 50% | Wolfsberger AC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 34% | Wolfsberger AC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Austria Vienna 1.27 / Wolfsberger AC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.859 / def 1.046 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.803 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Wolfsberger AC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Generali Arena.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 40% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (10 meetings): Austria Vienna 5W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 4W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.80x) against Austria Vienna's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
40%
2.50
34%
2.94
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.26
0.99
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.99 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 15W 5D 16L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 11W 10D 15L from 36 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.19 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 2D 11L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 15W 5D 16L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 10D 15L in their last 36 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.24 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 47%, Wolfsberger AC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Austria Vienna and 71% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna have failed to score in 35% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Austria Vienna's games and 65% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Austria Vienna's matches and 71% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.