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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grazer AK and Ried share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK and Ried finished level at 1-1 at Merkur-Arena, Relegation Group - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.61 xG and Ried 1.04 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against Ried attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 24%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 58%, Ried 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Ried's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grazer AK 1.12 PPG, Ried 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights