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Prediction vindicated as Grazer AK edge out Ried 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK beat Ried 2-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.52 xG and Ried 1.04 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Ried attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 49% | Draw 26% | Ried 26%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 60%, Ried 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Ried's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ried arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Grazer AK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights