Grazer AK 2-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grazer AK at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grazer AK and FC BW Linz meet at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Grazer AK's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Grazer AK's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC BW Linz (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, FC BW Linz have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Grazer AK. A 0.60 PPG lead over FC BW Linz (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Grazer AK edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Grazer AK 3–1 FC BW Linz — a Grazer AK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 62% versus FC BW Linz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 55% | FC BW Linz 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.46 xG and FC BW Linz 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.050 / defence 1.044 | FC BW Linz attack 0.774 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. FC BW Linz's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Grazer AK's last 44 games and FC BW Linz's last 44.
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 49% | Draw 28% | FC BW Linz 23%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.05 | Draw 3.57 | FC BW Linz 4.31. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Grazer AK as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Grazer AK 70% (last 10 home games) | FC BW Linz 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 25 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 49% | Draw 28% | FC BW Linz 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Grazer AK 1.46 / FC BW Linz 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 1.050 / def 1.044 | FC BW Linz attack 0.774 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC BW Linz xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz FAQs
What time does Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Grazer AK 2 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz part of?
Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 25) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 49% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Grazer AK and FC BW Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Grazer AK's attack at 1.05x the league average against FC BW Linz's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.77x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Grazer AK's last 44 games and FC BW Linz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.57
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.38
0.93
FC BW Linz xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Grazer AK and 0.93 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grazer AK come into this having played 56 games, going 11W 21D 24L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, FC BW Linz sit at 1.00 PPG from 56 outings (16W 8D 32L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.00 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Grazer AK's home form reads 7W 11D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, FC BW Linz have taken 0.68 points per game from their last 28 away games (4W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grazer AK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grazer AK are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.09 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
Grazer AK (Home) vs FC BW Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grazer AK
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz Form FAQs
What form are Grazer AK and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 11W 21D 24L in their last 56 games (0.96 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 16W 8D 32L in their last 56 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or FC BW Linz away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.14 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Grazer AK have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won FC BW Linz 3-0 Grazer AK on 13 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Grazer AK
1
Draws
1
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and FC BW Linz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Grazer AK have won 4, FC BW Linz have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and FC BW Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: FC BW Linz 0-3 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and FC BW Linz?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 64%, FC BW Linz 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Grazer AK) and 50% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Grazer AK and FC BW Linz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Grazer AK's games and 54% of FC BW Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Grazer AK and FC BW Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Grazer AK's recent games and 50% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and FC BW Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Grazer AK's recent matches and 71% of FC BW Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Grazer AK edge out FC BW Linz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK beat FC BW Linz 2-1 at Merkur-Arena, Relegation Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.46 xG and FC BW Linz 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against FC BW Linz attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 49% | Draw 28% | FC BW Linz 23%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 55%, FC BW Linz 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.96 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.