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Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 1-0 at Generali Arena, Championship Group - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.26 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 39% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 32%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 57%, TSV Hartberg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.66 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights